After a period of uncertainty triggered by U.S. trade policies and global economic tension, Mexico’s industrial real estate sector is poised for a potential resurgence. Industry leaders predict that a second boom in industrial real estate in Mexico could begin once geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties subside.

According to Luis Gutiérrez, former president of Fibra Prologis, the transformation of global supply chains through nearshoring and the end of China's dominant manufacturing cycle have created favorable conditions for industrial parks and warehouses in Mexico to experience renewed growth.

Mexico Positioned for Long-Term Growth in Industrial Real Estate

“Regardless of political shifts, companies will choose the most strategic locations for manufacturing,” Gutiérrez explained. “Mexico is well-positioned, and the next industrial real estate boom in Mexico could last 20 years.”

Carlos Gutiérrez, co-founder of Artha Capital, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that markets operate independently of short-term politics. He noted that tariff pressures could stabilize in the coming months, reinforcing Mexico’s strategic role in North American trade.

Despite a temporary slowdown, Mexico’s industrial market remains an attractive destination for international investors due to its geographic proximity, logistics infrastructure, and trained workforce.

From a Slow Year to a Long-Term Expansion

While Mexico’s industrial real estate market saw explosive growth after the pandemic—with some cities like Monterrey and Guadalajara experiencing near-zero vacancy rates—2025 has shown signs of cooling. Current estimates suggest that only 40% of new industrial buildings are being occupied, with potential vacancy rising to 6% of total inventory.

“It’s unclear if rental rates will drop,” said Luis Gutiérrez. “But we believe conditions will improve by the end of the year.”

Many in the sector are optimistic that demand will rebound, especially as companies seek specialized and automated industrial spaces that comply with evolving international standards.

Nearshoring vs. Onshoring: What’s at Stake?

Recent U.S. policies have emphasized onshoring, the strategy of bringing manufacturing back to American soil. However, experts like Bruno Martínez from the Industrial Parks Association of Jalisco say Mexico’s industrial ecosystem—built over four decades—is difficult to replicate.

With only 2% of the U.S. workforce in manufacturing and years needed to build equivalent capacity, the consensus remains that nearshoring in Mexico remains a far more realistic solution for companies navigating global supply chain shifts.

“The U.S.-Mexico-Canada supply chain is deeply integrated,” Martínez stated. “Complete separation is unlikely.”

Conclusion

Despite a temporary pause, the conditions are aligning for a revival of the industrial real estate boom in Mexico. With a strong nearshoring trend, strategic location, and world-class infrastructure, Mexico’s industrial real estate sector could once again become one of the top investment destinations in the Americas.