Despite a temporary pause in investment due to global economic uncertainty, business organizations in Jalisco anticipate that a second wave of nearshoring in Mexico—specifically in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area—will begin to materialize in the last quarter of 2025.

Executives from AmCham, AISAC, and Canieti agree that the momentum has only slowed, not stopped. They forecast a strong recovery across key sectors such as manufacturing, semiconductors, and services, driven by tariff differentials between Mexico and China and expectations surrounding the USMCA (T-MEC) renegotiation.

Nearshoring in Jalisco to Regain Strength

“We expect the second phase of nearshoring in Jalisco to begin in Q4 this year,” said Ernesto Sánchez Proal, president of AmCham Guadalajara. “Once the USMCA renegotiation concludes, companies will have more certainty and start moving forward.”

Mexico’s proximity to the U.S., combined with increasing tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 30%), has pushed companies to explore relocation. Many firms currently manufacturing in Asia are actively looking to shift operations to Mexico’s West—and Jalisco remains a prime candidate.

Investment Slowdown in El Salto Is Temporary

Raúl Güitron Robles, president of AISAC, noted that initial investment expectations for 2025—$800 million USD and 7,000 new jobs—have not yet materialized, primarily due to the return of Donald Trump to office and global volatility.

“But the construction of industrial parks hasn’t stopped,” said Güitron. “Those are long-term investments, and the El Salto industrial corridor remains strong.”

As the second-largest industrial corridor in Mexico, El Salto is seeing continued development of logistics and infrastructure, a key foundation for the expected nearshoring rebound in Jalisco.

Strong Outlook for Services and Semiconductors

In the tech sector, Roger Eleutheri, president of Canieti Occidente, foresees renewed growth in services and semiconductor manufacturing.

“Companies like Foxconn and Nvidia are examples of major investments that are already underway,” he said. “Jalisco can play a key role in the semiconductor supply chain.”

Eleutheri added that technology services from Jalisco—unaffected by tariffs—remain attractive to global investors. The region's expertise in electronics, software, and IT support has positioned it as a crucial part of Mexico’s nearshoring strategy.

Conclusion

While short-term uncertainty has delayed new investments, Jalisco is set for a second wave of nearshoring by the end of 2025. With industrial parks expanding, the tech sector strengthening, and tariff incentives increasing Mexico’s competitiveness, the state’s economic outlook remains positive.