Introduction: Growth in a Turbulent Sky

Mexico’s aerospace industry has established itself as one of the country’s most dynamic manufacturing sectors, with exports exceeding US$11 billion in 2024. According to the Mexican Federation of the Aerospace Industry (FEMIA), the sector is poised to maintain double-digit growth through 2025–2026, even as trade uncertainties and global headwinds complicate the flight path ahead.

Driven by competitive production costs, a skilled workforce, and integration into North American supply chains, Mexico is ranked 10th worldwide in aerospace manufacturing — a share of less than 3% but one that continues to expand. The sector’s capabilities now cover nearly every aspect of aircraft production, from aerostructures and fuselages to propulsion systems, avionics, and interiors.

Mexico’s Aerospace Industry: Performance and Forecast

The sector’s trajectory highlights both strong fundamentals and ambitious goals:

Exports: US$11 billion in 2024, forecast to reach US$12.9 billion by 2026.

Employment: Nearly 70,000 workers in 2024, rising to 74,000 by 2026.

Plants: More than 375 facilities today, expected to surpass 395 by 2026.

FDI: Roughly US$500 million annually, projected to climb modestly through 2026.

📊 Exhibit 1. Performance Indicators and Forecast for Mexico’s Aerospace Industry, 2014–2026. Source: MexicoNow Research.

These numbers confirm the sector’s growth potential, but they also underline the importance of supply chain resilience and regulatory stability in sustaining momentum.

Navigating Tariff Turbulence

One of the most pressing challenges stems from ongoing U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. At 50%, these levies could disrupt aerospace production, but FEMIA’s president, Luis Lizcano, explained that most aluminum used in Mexico originates in the U.S. and qualifies under USMCA rules of origin.

This means a significant portion of imported aluminum undergoes transformation in Mexico, earning reclassification that exempts it from tariffs. “Because Mexico complies with USMCA rules, our aerospace exports face fewer trade barriers,” Lizcano emphasized.

Still, U.S. policy unpredictability remains a cloud on the horizon, with potential renegotiations of USMCA raising questions about future rules of origin.

A Robust and Diversified Industrial Ecosystem

Mexico’s aerospace ecosystem has grown not only in size but in complexity. The country now hosts:

Over 375 aerospace companies, ranging from OEMs to Tier 1 suppliers.

Global leaders such as GE, Honeywell, Eaton, and Textron, alongside suppliers to Boeing, Bombardier, and Airbus.

A labor force that combines skilled technicians, engineers, and assembly workers.

The result is a fully integrated ecosystem capable of handling both advanced manufacturing and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services.

📊 Exhibit 2. Supply Chain Integration in Mexico’s Aerospace Industry. Source: FEMIA.

Supply Chain Strengths and Weaknesses

While Mexico’s aerospace supply chain is increasingly sophisticated, experts highlight gaps in Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers. According to Rene Espinosa of Metal Finishing, the traditional supply chain pyramid (OEMs at the top, smaller suppliers at the base) is inverted in Mexico: large Tier 1 and OEMs are present, but smaller specialized suppliers are lacking.

This forces many companies to import semi-finished parts from Eastern Europe and Asia, raising costs and lead times.

Challenges include:

Limited financing for SMEs.

Difficulty obtaining certifications and licenses.

Supply decisions often made abroad, delaying local supplier onboarding.

Despite these hurdles, industry optimism remains. Aldo Rodríguez of Paulo noted that strong OEM backlogs (despite Boeing’s setbacks) guarantee steady demand for years to come.

Regional Clusters: Mexico’s Aerospace Engines

Mexico’s aerospace industry thrives through regional clusters, each with distinct specializations:

Baja California: The oldest cluster, with ~100 firms focusing on integrated testing, interiors, machining, and hydraulics.

Querétaro: A magnet for FDI with engineering centers, component manufacturers, and MRO facilities. Recent expansions include Germany’s DIEHL Aviation (US$45m, 500 jobs), Spain’s ITP (US$48m, 250 jobs), and France’s Safran, boosting production of the LEAP engine.

Chihuahua: Safran’s new 200,000 ft² plant (#6) is expanding evacuation systems manufacturing and strengthening the supply chain.

Sonora: Specializes in gas turbine components with GE, Rolls-Royce, and Honeywell leading projects in casting, anodizing, and plasma spray.

Nuevo León (Monterrey): Leveraging its industrial base to develop parts manufacturing, metal mechanics, and MRO services.

These clusters highlight how Mexico combines regional strengths with national competitiveness, reinforcing its global position.

Investment, Innovation, and R&D

Foreign direct investment in aerospace is projected to stabilize at US$500 million annually through 2026. Much of this capital is flowing into:

Innovation and R&D for advanced engineering.

Expansion of low-cost, high-value engineering hubs.

MRO services to support Mexico’s growing commercial aviation fleet.

According to consulting firm EMR/Claight, relocating production to Mexico can yield 30% improvements in quality and up to 50% gains in efficiency, underscoring that the country’s value proposition goes far beyond cheap labor.

Challenges Ahead: Policy, Workforce, and Logistics

Despite its strengths, Mexico’s aerospace industry faces key risks:

Trade Uncertainty: U.S. protectionist trends and possible USMCA renegotiations could disrupt planning.

Workforce Shortages: Skilled labor is Mexico’s greatest advantage, but future growth could strain the pipeline of engineers and technicians.

Logistics Bottlenecks: Customs inefficiencies at ports and border crossings slow deliveries, eroding Mexico’s geographic advantage.

SME Development: The gap in Tier 3 and 4 suppliers remains a barrier to full supply chain integration.

These factors mean that continued growth will depend not only on private investment but also on federal policies to strengthen education, expedite customs, and support SMEs with financing and certification programs.

Conclusion: A Young Industry with Strong Potential

Mexico’s aerospace industry is still in its early decades, but its trajectory has been one of consistent growth, resilience, and increasing sophistication. With exports forecast to approach US$13 billion by 2026, a robust ecosystem of global OEMs and suppliers, and specialized clusters driving regional strengths, the country is well-positioned to continue climbing the global ranks.

Yet the road ahead will not be smooth. Tariff uncertainty, workforce development, and supply chain gaps must be addressed to sustain momentum. The good news is that Mexico’s fundamentals — skilled labor, cost efficiencies, and strategic geography — remain strong.

As aerospace companies pursue efficiency, quality, and proximity to U.S. markets, Mexico is proving it can deliver. With the right policies and continued investment, the country’s aerospace industry is set for another decade of ascent.